Okay, I know, the week isn't over because the most compelling game of the week hasn't actually been played, but regardless of the outcome, it doesn't effect the playoffs like those previously played. I think I can give a pretty accurate forecast now that week 11 is all but in the books. If you recall, I said that Tennessee was the best 0fer team out there when they were 0-6, predicting they would win in week 7. Well, they haven't stopped winning, now having posted a record of 5-6. However, because of a favorable schedule...FOR DENVER, they will unfortunately miss the playoffs. Denver, a team I also stated wasn't that good, did just enough to secure a playoff spot. I knew they wouldn't win that division, that their deficiencies would eventually be exploited, and it happened rather viciously over weeks 7-10, losing all four games and now trailing the Chargers by a game. However, because the gap has widened between the HAVES and the HAVE NOTS, their aren't many upper echelon teams in the AFC, meaning that there won't be a 10-6 team sitting out of the playoffs this year, in fact, a 9-7 might actually make the playoffs this year. Lets look at the teams that are going or have a chance to go to the playoffs in the AFC.
First, Indy is already in. At 11-0, they have won their division. All they have to shoot for now is perfection. I hope they try because even though we learned that the pressure put on NE for trying probably cost them the Superbowl, do we really want to see the Dolphins as the only undefeated team in history? Not really.
NE, which may or may not win tonight, is going to win their division. The schedule for the only other contenders in that division, Miami and the Jets, is brutal, so brutal, they won't be dealt a wild card. Miami has such a tough road, they might only win one more game. The Jets could conceivably win three more, but at 8-8, they won't be getting out for practice after week 16.
Cincy will win their division, not that they are great, but the hill to climb for Pitt and Baltimore is too steep. Both those teams could wind up at 9-7 and it could be up to a tie breaker as to who goes on, as that would put them, in my mind, in the number six spot. They both have an easy two games in their schedule, with the game up in the air, the one they play against each other in Pittsburg.
Although I am picking San Diego to win their division, the reality is, no one has an easier road than Denver. They have three gimmees, and should have 10 wins when the season is over. SD has two games they should win, and a tie breaker may decide the champion. Either way, they both go to the playoffs.
So in recap, the teams will be Indy, NE, Cincy, Pitt/Balt winner, SD, and Den. If you want to press me, 1. Indy, 2. NE, 3. SD, 4. Cincy (however 3/4 will be very close), 5. Den, 6. Pitt.
In the NFC, it is much different this year. There are better middle of the road teams in the NFC, and that doesn't bode well for NY and Atl. The two clear favorites for a first round bye are NO and Minn, strangely, the two teams in the NFC that have inspired more sympathy than any other two teams in NFL history. I can't think of another team that could compete with these two as teams everyone would love to see win a superbowl. (Check that, maybe Buffalo.) Nonetheless, these two teams will win their divisions and will draw first round byes.
Philly has an easier road than the Cowboys, in fact, after having a cushy first half the season, the Cowboys have a tough tough final five, having only one easy game. Philly on the other hand has five games with teams very capable, no easy games, but no games that they shouldn't be the favorite. However, after watching the Eagles this year, I am convinced that Andy Reid has lost his mind and I will give the nod to the Cowboys. Still, the Eagles make the playoffs. The Giants, darlings through the first five games, are just a horrid team now. Don't let their 6-5 record fool you, they will be lucky to win two more games.
As I said, the Vikings will win their division, however, Favre's old team will also make it to the post season. Green Bay may limp in though. They really only have one easy game, but I see them garnering one more in that five. A 9-7 record should secure a spot for them.
NO will have the top spot in the end. Their schedule is more favorable than the Vikings, even with a tough one tonight. Atlanta has a very favorable schedule but we will know after the next two games, the only two tough games of those five. If they could win one of them, they could slip past GB for the sixth spot.
Finally, Arizona finishes with 10 wins and wins their division in a rout, primarily because that division is poor. I doubt another team is above five hundred in that division, since I only see SF winning three of their final five and finishing up at 8-8.
To round up the NFC, 1. NO, 2. Vikings, 3. Dallas, 4. Arizona, 5. Green Bay, 6. Philly. HOWEVER, don't shoot the messenger if in fact not only does Atlanta make it, but they have the 5 spot. Their schedule is very soft, whereas GB and Philly have the two toughest schedules (outside of Dallas) of anyone left.
Monday, November 30, 2009
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