Monday, November 30, 2009

The NFL!!!

Okay, I know, the week isn't over because the most compelling game of the week hasn't actually been played, but regardless of the outcome, it doesn't effect the playoffs like those previously played. I think I can give a pretty accurate forecast now that week 11 is all but in the books. If you recall, I said that Tennessee was the best 0fer team out there when they were 0-6, predicting they would win in week 7. Well, they haven't stopped winning, now having posted a record of 5-6. However, because of a favorable schedule...FOR DENVER, they will unfortunately miss the playoffs. Denver, a team I also stated wasn't that good, did just enough to secure a playoff spot. I knew they wouldn't win that division, that their deficiencies would eventually be exploited, and it happened rather viciously over weeks 7-10, losing all four games and now trailing the Chargers by a game. However, because the gap has widened between the HAVES and the HAVE NOTS, their aren't many upper echelon teams in the AFC, meaning that there won't be a 10-6 team sitting out of the playoffs this year, in fact, a 9-7 might actually make the playoffs this year. Lets look at the teams that are going or have a chance to go to the playoffs in the AFC.
First, Indy is already in. At 11-0, they have won their division. All they have to shoot for now is perfection. I hope they try because even though we learned that the pressure put on NE for trying probably cost them the Superbowl, do we really want to see the Dolphins as the only undefeated team in history? Not really.
NE, which may or may not win tonight, is going to win their division. The schedule for the only other contenders in that division, Miami and the Jets, is brutal, so brutal, they won't be dealt a wild card. Miami has such a tough road, they might only win one more game. The Jets could conceivably win three more, but at 8-8, they won't be getting out for practice after week 16.
Cincy will win their division, not that they are great, but the hill to climb for Pitt and Baltimore is too steep. Both those teams could wind up at 9-7 and it could be up to a tie breaker as to who goes on, as that would put them, in my mind, in the number six spot. They both have an easy two games in their schedule, with the game up in the air, the one they play against each other in Pittsburg.
Although I am picking San Diego to win their division, the reality is, no one has an easier road than Denver. They have three gimmees, and should have 10 wins when the season is over. SD has two games they should win, and a tie breaker may decide the champion. Either way, they both go to the playoffs.
So in recap, the teams will be Indy, NE, Cincy, Pitt/Balt winner, SD, and Den. If you want to press me, 1. Indy, 2. NE, 3. SD, 4. Cincy (however 3/4 will be very close), 5. Den, 6. Pitt.
In the NFC, it is much different this year. There are better middle of the road teams in the NFC, and that doesn't bode well for NY and Atl. The two clear favorites for a first round bye are NO and Minn, strangely, the two teams in the NFC that have inspired more sympathy than any other two teams in NFL history. I can't think of another team that could compete with these two as teams everyone would love to see win a superbowl. (Check that, maybe Buffalo.) Nonetheless, these two teams will win their divisions and will draw first round byes.
Philly has an easier road than the Cowboys, in fact, after having a cushy first half the season, the Cowboys have a tough tough final five, having only one easy game. Philly on the other hand has five games with teams very capable, no easy games, but no games that they shouldn't be the favorite. However, after watching the Eagles this year, I am convinced that Andy Reid has lost his mind and I will give the nod to the Cowboys. Still, the Eagles make the playoffs. The Giants, darlings through the first five games, are just a horrid team now. Don't let their 6-5 record fool you, they will be lucky to win two more games.
As I said, the Vikings will win their division, however, Favre's old team will also make it to the post season. Green Bay may limp in though. They really only have one easy game, but I see them garnering one more in that five. A 9-7 record should secure a spot for them.
NO will have the top spot in the end. Their schedule is more favorable than the Vikings, even with a tough one tonight. Atlanta has a very favorable schedule but we will know after the next two games, the only two tough games of those five. If they could win one of them, they could slip past GB for the sixth spot.
Finally, Arizona finishes with 10 wins and wins their division in a rout, primarily because that division is poor. I doubt another team is above five hundred in that division, since I only see SF winning three of their final five and finishing up at 8-8.
To round up the NFC, 1. NO, 2. Vikings, 3. Dallas, 4. Arizona, 5. Green Bay, 6. Philly. HOWEVER, don't shoot the messenger if in fact not only does Atlanta make it, but they have the 5 spot. Their schedule is very soft, whereas GB and Philly have the two toughest schedules (outside of Dallas) of anyone left.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

The week that could have been.

If only Bobby Bowden could have pulled some magic out at the swamp. Well, as much as I hoped that it would happen, that it wouldn't be the winner of the SEC vs Texas, unless Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship, it is going to be business as usual for the BCS and its idiotic computer system.
Alabama looked pedestrian this week and I am inclined to amend my prediction, since Florida seems to look better with each week. I went with Alabama to beat Florida, but I doubt Alabama's offense can score more than 14 points.
Toby Gerhart is a man among boys. He will be responsible for a QB getting the Heisman because there is no way the selection committee can give it to Ingram in good conscious over Gerhart. Gerhart rushed for over 200 yards against the Dame, had three more TDs and threw for one to boot. He has 26 rushing TDs, Ingram has 12. He leads the nation in rushing with 1736, Ingram has 1429. Only one category does Ingram boast an advantage and that is yards per carry, 6.5 vs 5.6, but anyone that watched the ND/Stanford game saw a running back that takes on linebackers and wins. I would love to see the comparisons of YARDS AFTER CONTACT. In fact, I would like to see their YARDS DRAGGING A DEFENDER, or YARDS AFTER THE PILE ON, or HOW MANY DEFENDERS CARRIED ON THE PLAY.
Remarkably similar looking to another famous Cardinal Alum. He looks like a beefed up John Elway.


Mercy Rule: I know that every Thanksgiving since I was knee high to a grasshopper, Dallas and Detroit have played on Turkey Day, something about having a D as your first initial, because now Denver has been added, but does the nation have to be subjected to watching Detroit play? It's okay, I took the time during that game to get myself acquainted with the kitchen and became a cook.

College Basketball: Too early. Teams are still jockying for position and I don't think we will get a clear focus until the non conference games have subsided and major schools start playing major schools. Right now, watching powerhouses beat up on Tennessee Tech, Hofstra, Central Arkansas, Oakland, (Oakland is in Michigan by the way), just isn't that interesting. (These were the opponents of Kansas so far - They also played a rebuilding Memphis.)
Tiger Woods has a bent iron? What is a man doing going out of the house at 2:30am on Friday? Isn't that the time most people are coming home? And why is no one talking? I have a theory, his wife wasn't trying to get him out of the Cadillac with the golf club, but rather she swung it as he screeched out of the driveway and he crashed because of it! Now, I wish no ill will on my favorite golfer, but have you seen the woman the National Enquirer is claiming he was seeing behind his wife's back? SHE'S HOT! However, one does wonder how a mega star like Tiger would be doing with a gate keeper at a Vegas Club.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

What's wrong with the Pac 10.

What's wrong with the Pac 10 isn't a question, it's a surmise. Officiating! The problem with the Pac 10 is that their officials aren't on board with the SEC officials, who have figured out that it is good business to have one of your teams, or in their case, two of your teams, in the running for a national championship, because if poor officiating for the BETTER team is any indication, then the Pac 10 surely hasn't figured that out. Not that Oregon should have won that game yesterday, but in the extra session, the officiating crew did what was necessary to get Arizona the seven points they needed to knot up the score. In truth, I have discovered how to beat Masoli, stack your defense to the right. Masoli, not only rolls EVERYTIME to the right, but he actually flushes HIMSELF out of the pocket and rolls right on EVERY PASS PLAY.
I predicted that OU was the best team in the pac 10 and that I really thought OSU was the second best team. Check that, Stanford and that power running game is the second best team. Forget their loss to Cal, another pretty formidable team, I like Stanford. Likewise, with a very suspect team in UCLA, I now see seven Pac 10 teams going to bowl games. Given that UCLA will get beat in a bowl game, the Pac 10 has a good chance to win six games. But that is a small consolation that the closest they will get to a Championship game is that the bowl game is played in UCLA's stadium. Bringing me back to the big picture: had the refs in the Stanford/Oregon game done what the SEC officials did in both Florida and Alabama's undefeated runs, the pac 10 would have a team vying for a national championship.
Speaking of, the path is cleared and the teams are set, winner of the SEC vs Texas. You don't have to like it, it's the way it is. TCU will get the loser of the SEC, Cincy plays Oklahoma State (provided they beat OK), BOISE gets Penn St. This isn't how it's going to be, but it could be. I don't agree with it, but I live with it.
Oh, and for the championship, Texas plays Alabama. Yeah, I am predicting now, that Alabama beats Florida, in more ways than one. Ingram takes that hiked up trophy away from Tebow. OH, but wait, if there was a running back more deserving, it is Toby Gerhart of Stanford. He is a moose, with 11 more touchdowns than Ingram and 132 more yards. Yet, that 6.8 yards a carry for Ingram is tough to overlook. Speaking of running games, when BOISE plays Nevada, they will be competing against a team that has two runningbacks averaging over 8 yards a carry. This may be the WAC, but it ain't your daddy's WAC anymore.

College Basketball:
And I don't mean Girls! Because as we know, it will come down to UConn or Tenn, as it always does. They get the best lesbians, er, players in the nation, EVERY year.
MENS: Kansas is the preseason favorite and after watching the first week of play, it is too early to say if anyone is that special. I will say this about Kansas, the big white kid in the center is a load. Cole Aldrich plays a lot taller than 6'11". Not to mention, I think Bill Self is one of the premier coaches and have believed so ever since his days at Tulsa, yes he was somewhere before his Illinois days.
Michigan State, by virtue of playing in the big 10 is a safe bet to be at or around the top at the end of the year. Not that what I saw against Gonzaga was special, but lets face it, make it through the first ten games, get to the league, and they cruise on through.
Texas, hey aren't they #3 in Football too? Anyway, I haven't had the privilege to see them play yet, however, they like Michigan State, should be helped by their schedule, outside of Kansas, their league schedule is pretty soft.
Kentucky, nobody in the top five has an easier schedule than Kentucky, however, they have thoroughly been unimpressive, and I fear they live on reputation at this stage of the season.
North Carolina! If playing good teams help build a program, folks, you are looking at the cream of the crop. Forget the season, which is a dogfight in the ACC, look at their next six games. They play the second ranked, third ranked and fourth ranked (Villanova is actually ranked ahead of NC in the AP poll) teams in the country. If they survive that test, they will be the second ranked team in the country. Basketball, unlike every other college sport is so much more about good coaches. With fewer pieces to work with, getting five guys on the right page is truly artistic, and year in and year out, teams coached by the likes of Roy Williams, Bill Self, Coach K, Rick Barnes, Ben Howland, Tom Izzo, John Calipari, Mark Few, Jim Calhoun, Jim Boeheim, and Rick Pitino always find ways to win. It isn't all about the school, evidenced by Few, Calhoun, and Self. Calhoun created a dynasty that until he arrived was nothing. Few took over a program that was gaining prominence and not only continued it, but built it up. Few went to a great basketball school, but had proven to make every team he ever coached better, doing so with Kansas by winning a national championship.
Pro Basketball:
Of the teams leading their respective divisions, (Boston, Milwaukee Atlanta, Dallas, Denver/Portland, Phoenix) only Boston, Dallas, Denver will be there at the end of the year. Cleveland will catch Miwaukee, albeit, Milwaukee is a much improved squad and arguably has the rookie of the year in Brandon Jennings. Orlando will catch Atlanta, and Miami might well do the same, however, Orlando is a cream of the crop team in the NBA. This team sports Howard, Lewis, and Carter. That is a formidable line up. They have five guys in double figures and it appears that JJ Redick may finally show up in the NBA, averaging just under 10 points. If he can become a 3 point presence, this is a scary team. Dallas appears to have regained the composure they had three years ago when they made the finals. The addition of Shawn Marion has made a remarkable difference, throw in that Kidd is playing great assist basketball, Dirk is off the charts, Terry is having a great year and you have a recipe for disaster, that's right, disaster. This is the one team that is an injury away from being a bad team. That injury, would be to Dirk. If he stays healthy, they will go far in the playoffs. Of course, injury teams are no better represented than in their division by the Houston Rockets. This is a team that is being led by Trevor Ariza, even though, two hall of famers are sitting on the injury bench in Yao Ming and TMac. If you could ever get all those pieces together, Rick Adelman might actually have a winner. Denver wins that division, period. They are good from top to bottom. Portland is more than tournament ready, they are another good team. Finally, alas, as much as I despise the Lakers, they are going to overhaul the Suns. The suns with the addition of Jason Richardson have regained their swagger from a few years ago, but they are playing WAY above their heads right now. The Lakers are right on their heels and get Pau Gasol back. I am not a big fan of Gasol, I think he plays ole`defense but I recant everything I ever said about Andrew Bynum. I always thought he was a big body, but the guy has an offensive presence that completely caught me off guard. To me, the only downfall to this Laker team is Ron Artest and Odoms. Two guys that think they want to play outside the lines. We will see.

Pro Football: I told you the Denver Broncos weren't that good. I keep repeating myself after every loss because I thought I would have to eat crow after they be New England. However, New England has lost two games this years purely because of poor coaching. Never thought poor coaching and New England could be said in the same sentence. Mid season surprises: Cincinnati, Minnesota, New Orleans, Dallas, NY Giants. The first four because they are winning, the last one because they aren't. I'm still not sold on Cincy, but I give them a clear path to the playoffs, they have earned it. Minnesota, if you learn that you are a great running team, you will be unstoppable. New Orleans, uh oh, I see chinks and they are growing. Dallas, your schedule is your friend. Indy, you cleared the way for a HUGE season, possibly a ring in your future. San Diego, granted your coach sucks, but your obstacle, the Broncos, aren't that good. New England, you still have a great team, but you blew a chance to have home field advantage. It may have cost you a trip to the superbowl. Arizona, stay quiet, no one realizes you are playoff bound.
Track and Field. Caster Semenya. If I didn't mention Track and Field, that name probably wouldn't register, but since I did, everyone must be saying, "The gal/guy that gets to keep her medal." My only comment here is, "Wow, how embarrassing that must be." What a shame it wasn't handled better by the organizers of the event. However, I find it quite ironic that the Germans of all people would be the definitive decision maker on gender bending and subsequent punishment, since we all know that during the eighties they cranked out testosterone heavy women in an effort to show the world their supremacy in athletic endeavors.

Monday, November 16, 2009

So who is TCU?

Since they narrowly beat the Falcons of the Air Force, the Horned Frogs have rattled off four impressive routs, culminated by a 55-28 shellacking of Utah. When I don't mention them, they are clearly under the radar, especially since I have been calling the number of BOISE and Cincy all season long. So who are these Horned Frogs? They only give up 244 yards a game, less than a hundred against the run. More importantly, they gave up 284 against Utah and 298 against BYU, the two quality wins on their schedule. They had more than 400 yards of offense against BYU and a whopping 500+ against Utah. This could leave FIVE undefeated teams at the end of the year, and hopefully, someone other than Texas and SEC winner will get a shot at the National title, of course, the only way that will happen is if there are only four undefeated teams at the end of the year and Texas isn't one of them. Reality is this, the BCS is going to be smart and pit Cincy against TCU, that way they negate any argument either team might have if they played the loser of the SEC championship and beat them. That team, the loser of SEC, will get either Iowa, Penn St, USC, Stanford, Oregon St, etc. You get the picture, big boys vs big boys. This leaves BOISE! Who do they get to play if they are undefeated? They are going to get a one loss or two loss big boy. Theoretically, at the end of the day, when all is said and done, there may be three undefeated teams, with either Texas or the winner of the SEC being declared the National champs. Since Stanford crashed the party and destroyed the reputation of the Pac 10 by stunning both Oregon and USC, I don't care. The Pac 10 will get 5 maybe six teams in lower tier games and they should win 5 maybe six of those games. Doesn't speak much about the aspirations at the beginning of the year though. I could see Oregon, Oregon St., Stanford, USC, Cal, and Arizona, and an OUTSIDE chance UCLA, if they finish at 6-6, they would be bowl eligible. Of course, seeing Neuheisel in a bowl isn't an appetizing thought. He is so overrated as a coach.
NFL: Has Bill B lost his mind? New England had to have a fix in on that game against Indy. You are up by 13 with five minutes to play, okay, you let them score and are up by six, you get the ball with just over 2 minutes left and you can't even run the clock down below two minutes, what's worse, you GO FOR IT FROM YOUR OWN 30? What are you? A F*&%ing moron? when it was 4th and 3 and the clock was at 2:06, here's what I do: Snap back to punt, run the ball back to the endzone, killing the clock and taking their timeout from them, fall on the ball and take a safety. 4 points is the same as 6 in that situation. You punt the ball and make them start at their own 20 or 30 yard line. They would have had about buck 40 to play with, that would have taken the center of the field away from them. Bill, I lost half my respect for you last night. Furthermore, when they completed that first pass to the ten, LET THEM SCORE! Don't waste any more time. You have Tom Brady for God sake, let him drive down for a field goal.
SEE I TOLD YOU! Denver AIN'T that good. They lost to the one team that has mystified the league by their futility, the Washington Redskins. San Diego caught the Broncos and by the season's end, the Broncos will be watching the playoffs from the comfort of their couches.
OKAY, I BELIEVE! Cincy really is a contender, not for the superbowl, no I don't believe that much, but they are definitely contenders for the playoffs. It wasn't their offense that surprised me though, albeit, Palmer, 85, and a tough running game was impressive, it was their defense that made big plays of Big Ben, a tough hombre to take down, of which they managed to do, ending the game with a manic rush that forced an errant throw.
I TOLD YOU SO! Tennessee was the best 0fer team three weeks ago, now they are the best 3 win team. THE BEST DIDN'T SHINE. New Orleans showed a different way to win, use Reggie. They were thoroughly unimpressive against, arguably, the worst team in the NFL, the St. Louis Rams, but they won nonetheless. As did the Vikings against the lowly Lions.
I WAS ABOUT TO CHANGE MY MIND, BUT... The Dallas Cowgirls proved once and for all, that their record was tainted by a crappy schedule. When they finally played a team that was pretty good, they were pretty bad.
Here's how it went:Seattle vs Arizona
Seattle 20
Arizona 31
K. Warner: 29-38, 340 yds, 2 TDs
Monday, Nov 16 Baltimore vs Cleveland
Thursday, Nov 12
Chicago 6
San Francisco 10
Sunday, Nov 15

Atlanta 19
Carolina 28

Tampa Bay 23
Miami 25

Detroit 10
Minnesota 27

Jacksonville 24
NY Jets 22

Cincinnati 18
Pittsburgh 12

New Orleans 28
St. Louis 23

Buffalo 17
Tennessee 41

Denver 17
Washington 27

Kansas City 16
Oakland 10

Dallas 7
Green Bay 17

Philadelphia 23
San Diego 31

New England 34
Indianapolis 35

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Today was disappointed, but not because...

Not because Oregon lost. I knew sooner or later an undersized Defense that overpursues would eventually get caught, and they did. Throw in a power running game and it was destined to happen against Stanford. No, this week was disappointing, because I think I correctly called the Alabama game. For three quarters, LSU had that game, but they went away from what worked and Alabama's defense capitalized. I will say this though, WOW, Ingram is a great back. I didn't see a good Heisman this year, but I am throwing my hat to Ingram until someone shows me evidence that someone else is more deserving. I knew Iowa would eventually lose, however, I didn't think it would be this week. Unfortunately, the system is going to win out over me, because Texas and the SEC winner will play for the National Title, and BOISE and Cincy will be on the outside looking in.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

The interest might be dead

So what has the SEC done for us? Nothing, save tell us that there is a general bias void of any intelligent thought about the strength of teams around the country. Granted, Oregon is the highest ranked one loss team in the nation, however, when LSU beats Alabama, that will change. LSU will leap past Oregon and Alabama may not fall but no further than 10th. Meaning that the winner of the SEC end of season tourney is going to the championship dinner. I believe that the dinner guest is going to be Texas, I just don't see Texas losing a game. Sadly, that will put the Pac Ten on the outside looking in, which is really too bad, since I believe that the Pac Ten is the best league in college. My sorrow to the Big Ten, but when Iowa is your top ranked team, it's a down year, something they have had a lot of in recent memory. And I swear to the Almight above, if they wind up pitting BOISE against Cincy, I will be as angry as I get when my children eat the last link sausage. (That's pretty darn angry!) Put Cincy and BOISE against the two losers in the SEC, either LSU, Alabama, or Florida. That would give us a litmus test. Let Oregon embarrass Iowa, that's always good for the Pac Ten alum. We can't go a year without a good whipping of a Big Ten team.